India has developed its own model to predict rainfallHome

India is ready with its own indigenous model to predict long range and seasonal rainfall. In the next six months, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, is all set to operationalise a dynamic numerical climate model it has developed to forecast extended-range rainfall for 15-20 days, after results from the experimental stage were found to be reliable.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which is the official agency to disseminate forecast, will however, validate the operationalisation of the model. Currently, the IMD uses a statistical model that needs lengthy calculations to make predictions of the southwest monsoon.

Using the Climate Forecast System developed in the US, scientists at IITM have localised the indigenous model factoring Indian climatic conditions. “The skillful and timely forecasts of intra- seasonal monsoon rainfall possess a greater potential utility for agriculture and water resource management.

In the extended range, especially beyond the weather scale (2–3 weeks), a single deterministic rainfall forecast is not sufficient, so the user community should also be given probabilistic forecasts that quantify the uncertainty,” said Atul Kumar Sahai, project director, Monsoon Mission.

Source: http://hindustantimes.com /